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Odds build in favor of 2012 being warmest year across the U.S.

Published: Thursday, October 11, 2012

The likelihood of 2012 being the warmest year on record across the continental United States is rising. Temperatures from January to September have averaged 59.8 degrees Fahrenheit, which is 3.8 degrees above the 20th-century average.

Six of eight scenarios charted by the National Climatic Data Center have the year ending as the warmest since 1895. 2012 will escape this dubious distinction only if the last quarter of the year is among the 10 coldest on record.

The year has already witnessed the warmest March and July on record. Every month except September has been among the top 20 warmest, according to September was the 23rd-warmest on record and the 16th consecutive month with above-average temperatures in the lower 48 states.

In August, meteorologist Nick Wiltgen calculated that "the odds of not surpassing the warmest year on record are about 13 percent." On Tuesday, Wiltgen said those odds have fallen to about 7 percent (Miguel Llanos,  NBC News, Oct. 9). -- NN

Reprinted from ClimateWire with permission from Environment & Energy Publishing, LLC. 202-628-6500


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